“Thomas theorem” and self-fulfilling prophecy: methodological analysis of concepts
Research Article
How to Cite
Babich N.S. “Thomas theorem” and self-fulfilling prophecy: methodological analysis of concepts. Sociology: methodology, methods, mathematical modeling (Sociology: 4M). 2025. No. 59. P. 7-30. DOI: https://doi.org/10.19181/4m.2024.33.2.1 (in Russ.).
Abstract
The article proposes an analysis of using «Thomas theorem» in sociological discourse against the background of the widespread belief that this «theorem» is a synonym for «self-fulfilling prophecy». The author proves that these principles describe two partially intersecting sets of situations. The main conclusion is that only some self-fulfilling prophecies are explained by «Thomas theorem» and only some cases of applicability of the theorem relate to self-fulfilling prophecies. Apparently, W. I. Thomas and R. Merton understood this terminological nuance, but then the understanding was lost. This loss obscured the meaning of Thomas's theorem. The author also analyzes the methodological value of correctly understood Thomas theorem, which consists in the possibility to incorporate human subjectivity into causally interpreted reality. This allows classifying social ontologies in Thomasian and non-Thomasian.
Keywords:
Thomas theorem, self-fulfilling prophecy, human subjectivity, social situation, social ontology, social methodology, social reality
References
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11. Collins R. Proscience or antiscience? (in Russian), THESIS, 1994, no. 4, p. 71-96.
12. Hedström P, Ylikoski P. Causal mechanisms in the social sciences (in Russian), Journal of Sociology and Social Anthropology, 2014, vol. 17, no. 1, p. 14-40. EDN: SBXONZ.
13. Sztompka P. Society in action: the theory of social becoming. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1991. 211 p. ISBN: 0226788156.
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18. Hedström P. Dissecting the social: on the principles of analytical sociology. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2005. 188 p. DOI: 10.1017/CBO9780511488801. ISBN: 9780511488801.
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25. Collins R. Theoretical sociology. New York: Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, 1988. 565 p. ISBN: 978-0155914742.
26. Sanderson S.K. The evolution of human sociality. Lanham: Rowman & Littlefield, 2001. 393 p. ISBN: 9780847695355.
27. Babich N.S. Reception of the sociological hypothesis in the case of the Thomas theorem (in Russian), Sociology of Science and Technology, 2021, vol. 12, no 2, p. 58-70. DOI: 10.24412/2079-0910-2021-2-58-70. EDN: BXZZAR.
28. Babich N.S. On the question of the exact formulation of The Thomas theorem (in Russian), Society: Sociology, Psychology, Pedagogy, 2021, vol. 11, no. 91, p. 42-47. DOI: 10.24158/spp.2021.11.5. EDN: IAJAPT.
29. Stinchcombe A.L. Stratification and organization. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1986. 381 p. ISBN: 9788200073765.
30. Wan Y., Yang X. An empirical study of the self-fulfilling prophecy effect in Chinese stock market, The Journal of Finance and Data Science, 2019, vol. 5, no. 2, p. 116-125. DOI: 10.1016/j.jfds.2019.04.001
31. Henshel R.L. The boundary of the self-fulfilling prophecy and the dilemma of social prediction, British Journal of Sociology, 1982, vol. 33, no. 4, p. 511-528. DOI: 10.2307/589359.
32. Devyatko I.F. Towards Justice: An experimental study of the relationship between descriptive ordinary knowledge and perceptions of distributive justice (in Russian), Journal of Sociology and Social Anthropolog, 2011, vol. 14, no. 2, p. 139-164. EDN: ODPUOX.
33. Thomas W.I., Znaniecki F. The Polish peasant in Europe and America. Vol. 1. Chicago: The University of Chicago press, 1918. 310 p.
34. Thomas W.I. Povedencheskii pattern i situatsiya. Interaktsionizm v amerikanskoi sotsiologii i sotsial'noi psikhologii pervoi poloviny XX veka [Interactionism in American sociology and social psychology in the first half of the 20th century] (in Russian), ed. by V. G. Nikolaev. Moscow: INION RAN, 2010, p. 185-200. ISBN: 978-5-248-00526-0.
35. Merton R.K. The Thomas theorem and the Matthew effect, Social Forces, 1995, vol. 74, no. 2, p. 379-422. DOI: 10.2307/2580486.
36. West D.J., Walk A. Daniel McNaughton: His trial and the aftermath. Ashford: Headley, 1977. 185 p. ISBN: 090224101X.
37. Mead G.H. Movements of thought in the nineteenth century. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1936. 519 p.
38. McNair B. Glasnost, perestroika, and the Soviet media. London: Routledge, 1991. 231 p. ISBN: 0-415-03551-1.
39. Dickerson C.A., Thibodeau R., Aronson E., Miller D. Using cognitive dissonance to encourage water conservation, Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 1992, vol. 22, no. 11, p. 841-854. DOI: 10.1111/j.1559-1816.1992.tb00928.x.
40. Petty R.E., Cacioppo J. T. Issue involvement can increase or decrease persuasion by enhancing message-relevant cognitive responses, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 1979, vol. 37, no. 10, p. 1915-1926. DOI: 10.1037/0022-3514.37.10.1915.
41. Stone J., Aronson E., Crain A.L., Winslow M.P., Fried C.B. Inducing hypocrisy as a means of encouraging young adults to use condoms, Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 1994, vol. 20, no. 1, p. 116-128. DOI: 10.1177/0146167294201012.
42. Richardson G.P. Feedback Thought in Social Science and Systems Theory. Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press, 1991. 374 p. ISBN: 0812230531.
43. Biggs M. “Self-fulfilling prophecies”, in: The Oxford handbook of analytical sociology, ed. by P. Hedström, P. Bearman. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2009, p. 294-314. ISBN: 978-0-19-958745-2.
44. Ball D.W. ‘The definition of situation’: Some theoretical and methodological consequences of taking W. I. Thomas seriously, Journal for the Theory of Social Behaviour, 1972, no. 1, p. 61-82. DOI: 10.1111/j.1468 5914.1972.tb00304.x.
45. Varela C. Science for humanism: the recovery of human agency. London: Routledge, 2009. 352 p. ISBN: 9780415481823.
46. Kim J. Supervenience and mind. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1993. 377 p. ISBN: 0521433940.
47. Schutz A., Luckmann T. The structures of the life-world. Vol. 2. Evanston: Northwestern University Press, 1989. 339 p. ISBN: 978-0810108332.
48. Gumplovich L. Osnovy sotsiologii [Fundamentals of Sociology] (in Russian). Moscow: Librokom, 2010. 360 p. ISBN: 9785397014755.
49. Metzinger T. Being no one: the self-model theory of subjectivity. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 2004. 699 p. ISBN: 9780262633086.
2. Bornmann L., Marx W. Thomas theorem in research evaluation, Scientometrics, 2020, no. 123(1), p. 553-555. DOI: 10.1007/s11192 020 03389 6. EDN: LJMRJY.
3. Esser H. “Die objektivität der situation: Das Thomas-theorem und das konzept der sozialen”, in: Das Auge der Wissenschaft, ed. by R. Martinsen. Baden-Baden: Nomos Verlag, 1995. 215 s. ISBN: 978-3-7890-4011-5.
4. Kippenberg H.G. Searching for the link between religion and violence by means of the Thomas-theorem, Method & Theory in the Study of Religion, 2010, no. 2, p. 97-115. DOI: 10.1163/157006810X512310.
5. Link B.G., Monahan J., Stueve A., Cullen F. Real in their consequences: A sociological approach to understanding the association between psychotic symptoms and violence, American Sociological Review, 1999, vol. 64, no. 2, p. 316-332. EDN: GSHRUB.
6. Mehan H. “Oracular reasoning in a psychiatric exam: the resolution of conflict in language”, in: Conflict talk: Sociolinguistic investigations of arguments in conversations, ed. by A. D. Grimshaw. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1990, p. 160-177. ISBN: 0521335442.
7. Tumminia D.G. When prophecy never fails: myth and reality in a flying-saucer group. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2005. 240 p. ISBN: 0195176758.
8. Wiley N. The self as self-fulfilling prophecy, Symbolic interaction, 2003, no. 4, p. 501-513. DOI: 10.1525/si.2003.26.4.501.
9. Merton R.K. Sociological ambivalence and other essays. New York: Free press, 1976. 287 p. ISBN: 9780029211205.
10. Kozer L. Mastera sotsiologicheskoi mysli [Masters of Sociological Thought] (in Russian). Moscow: Norma, 2006. 528 p. ISBN: 5-89123-963-9. EDN: QOESUR.
11. Collins R. Proscience or antiscience? (in Russian), THESIS, 1994, no. 4, p. 71-96.
12. Hedström P, Ylikoski P. Causal mechanisms in the social sciences (in Russian), Journal of Sociology and Social Anthropology, 2014, vol. 17, no. 1, p. 14-40. EDN: SBXONZ.
13. Sztompka P. Society in action: the theory of social becoming. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1991. 211 p. ISBN: 0226788156.
14. Yadov V.A. Possibilities of combining theoretical paradigms in sociology (in Russian), Sociological Journal, 2003, no. 3, p. 5-19. EDN: PZQNYB.
15. Vera H. Rebuilding a classic: The Social construction of reality at 50, Cultural Sociology, 2016, vol. 10, no. 1, p. 3-20. DOI: 10.1177/1749975515617489.
16. Ritcer D. Sovremennye sotsiologicheskie teorii [Contemporary Sociological Theories] (in Russian). Saint Petersburg: Piter, 2002. 688 p. ISBN: 5-318-00687-6.
17. Merton R.K. Sotsial'naya teoriya i sotsial'naya struktura [Social theory and social structure] (in Russian). Moscow: AST, 2006. 873 p. ISBN: 5-17-029089-6.
18. Hedström P. Dissecting the social: on the principles of analytical sociology. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2005. 188 p. DOI: 10.1017/CBO9780511488801. ISBN: 9780511488801.
19. Sampson R.J. When things aren't what they seem: context and cognition in appearance-based regulation, Harvard Law Review Forum, 2011, vol. 125, p. 97-107.
20. Kelleghan T., Madaus G.F., Airasian P.W. The Effects of Standardized Testing. Boston: Kluwer-Nijhoff, 1982. 284 p. DOI: 10.1007/978 94 009 7386-2.
21. Kendall D.E. Sociology in our times. 8th ed. Belmont: Wadsworth, 2011. 741 p. ISBN: 9780495905097.
22. Krishna D. "The self-fulfilling prophecy″ and the Nature of Society, American Sociological Review, 1971, vol. 36, no. 6, p. 1104-1107. DOI: 10.2307/2093771.
23. Karlsen Ya.E. “Samoosushchestvlyayushcheesya prorochestvo” [Self-Fulfilling Prophecy] (in Russian), in: Teoriya i metody v social'nyh naukah [Theory and methods in the social sciences], ed. by S. Larsen. Moscow: ROSSPEN, 2004, p. 102-114. ISBN: 5-8243-0468-8.
24. Khaustov D.S. Thomas' theorem and social reality construction through mass communications (in Russian), Sociological Studies, 2012, no. 7, p. 29-36. EDN: PBVOEJ.
25. Collins R. Theoretical sociology. New York: Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, 1988. 565 p. ISBN: 978-0155914742.
26. Sanderson S.K. The evolution of human sociality. Lanham: Rowman & Littlefield, 2001. 393 p. ISBN: 9780847695355.
27. Babich N.S. Reception of the sociological hypothesis in the case of the Thomas theorem (in Russian), Sociology of Science and Technology, 2021, vol. 12, no 2, p. 58-70. DOI: 10.24412/2079-0910-2021-2-58-70. EDN: BXZZAR.
28. Babich N.S. On the question of the exact formulation of The Thomas theorem (in Russian), Society: Sociology, Psychology, Pedagogy, 2021, vol. 11, no. 91, p. 42-47. DOI: 10.24158/spp.2021.11.5. EDN: IAJAPT.
29. Stinchcombe A.L. Stratification and organization. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1986. 381 p. ISBN: 9788200073765.
30. Wan Y., Yang X. An empirical study of the self-fulfilling prophecy effect in Chinese stock market, The Journal of Finance and Data Science, 2019, vol. 5, no. 2, p. 116-125. DOI: 10.1016/j.jfds.2019.04.001
31. Henshel R.L. The boundary of the self-fulfilling prophecy and the dilemma of social prediction, British Journal of Sociology, 1982, vol. 33, no. 4, p. 511-528. DOI: 10.2307/589359.
32. Devyatko I.F. Towards Justice: An experimental study of the relationship between descriptive ordinary knowledge and perceptions of distributive justice (in Russian), Journal of Sociology and Social Anthropolog, 2011, vol. 14, no. 2, p. 139-164. EDN: ODPUOX.
33. Thomas W.I., Znaniecki F. The Polish peasant in Europe and America. Vol. 1. Chicago: The University of Chicago press, 1918. 310 p.
34. Thomas W.I. Povedencheskii pattern i situatsiya. Interaktsionizm v amerikanskoi sotsiologii i sotsial'noi psikhologii pervoi poloviny XX veka [Interactionism in American sociology and social psychology in the first half of the 20th century] (in Russian), ed. by V. G. Nikolaev. Moscow: INION RAN, 2010, p. 185-200. ISBN: 978-5-248-00526-0.
35. Merton R.K. The Thomas theorem and the Matthew effect, Social Forces, 1995, vol. 74, no. 2, p. 379-422. DOI: 10.2307/2580486.
36. West D.J., Walk A. Daniel McNaughton: His trial and the aftermath. Ashford: Headley, 1977. 185 p. ISBN: 090224101X.
37. Mead G.H. Movements of thought in the nineteenth century. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1936. 519 p.
38. McNair B. Glasnost, perestroika, and the Soviet media. London: Routledge, 1991. 231 p. ISBN: 0-415-03551-1.
39. Dickerson C.A., Thibodeau R., Aronson E., Miller D. Using cognitive dissonance to encourage water conservation, Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 1992, vol. 22, no. 11, p. 841-854. DOI: 10.1111/j.1559-1816.1992.tb00928.x.
40. Petty R.E., Cacioppo J. T. Issue involvement can increase or decrease persuasion by enhancing message-relevant cognitive responses, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 1979, vol. 37, no. 10, p. 1915-1926. DOI: 10.1037/0022-3514.37.10.1915.
41. Stone J., Aronson E., Crain A.L., Winslow M.P., Fried C.B. Inducing hypocrisy as a means of encouraging young adults to use condoms, Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 1994, vol. 20, no. 1, p. 116-128. DOI: 10.1177/0146167294201012.
42. Richardson G.P. Feedback Thought in Social Science and Systems Theory. Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press, 1991. 374 p. ISBN: 0812230531.
43. Biggs M. “Self-fulfilling prophecies”, in: The Oxford handbook of analytical sociology, ed. by P. Hedström, P. Bearman. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2009, p. 294-314. ISBN: 978-0-19-958745-2.
44. Ball D.W. ‘The definition of situation’: Some theoretical and methodological consequences of taking W. I. Thomas seriously, Journal for the Theory of Social Behaviour, 1972, no. 1, p. 61-82. DOI: 10.1111/j.1468 5914.1972.tb00304.x.
45. Varela C. Science for humanism: the recovery of human agency. London: Routledge, 2009. 352 p. ISBN: 9780415481823.
46. Kim J. Supervenience and mind. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1993. 377 p. ISBN: 0521433940.
47. Schutz A., Luckmann T. The structures of the life-world. Vol. 2. Evanston: Northwestern University Press, 1989. 339 p. ISBN: 978-0810108332.
48. Gumplovich L. Osnovy sotsiologii [Fundamentals of Sociology] (in Russian). Moscow: Librokom, 2010. 360 p. ISBN: 9785397014755.
49. Metzinger T. Being no one: the self-model theory of subjectivity. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 2004. 699 p. ISBN: 9780262633086.
Article
Received: 12.11.2024
Accepted: 17.01.2025
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APA
Babich, N. S. (2025). “Thomas theorem” and self-fulfilling prophecy: methodological analysis of concepts. Sociology: Methodology, Methods, Mathematical Modeling (Sociology: 4M), (59), 7-30. https://doi.org/10.19181/4m.2024.33.2.1
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METHODOLOGY OF SOCIOLOGICAL RESEARCH
